Talked to friend who actually tried fossil camp digging... for FOUR hours...
Dug 3000 times (15k mining xp): 320 numulites (320 x 1) and 0 fossils of any kind
Official source comaprison:
https://twitter.com/JagexMaz/status/917370777510572032
According to the above the drop rate for numulites is about 5% (1/17.5 chance of getting either fossil OR numulite)
However, my friend got about a 10.6% drop rate of numulites and 0 fossils when he should have expected SEVENTEEN fossils of some kind.
TLDR: If my friend's numbers are correct then Maz's data is wrong.
That being said, Maz's data seems approximately correct for Sulliusceps and Underwater thieving
Snaad (talk) 02:52, May 1, 2018 (UTC)
Did some fossil island digging and was frustrated that I was not getting any fossils and received 71 numilite. I only did 851 actions before I thought something was wrong. Using a binomial distribution calulator, set to 5% chance, 851 trials, and 71 successes, there is a less than .000001% chance to receive 71 numilite. If I set the chance to 10.6% as Snaad suggested, there is a 98.7% to receive 71 or more numilite. Similarly, if I set the chance to 0.29% as is listed for a small fossil, there should be a 91.5% chance to receive at least one small fossil. For the other fossils and their listed chances, there should be a 69.6% to receive one or more mediums, a 60% chance to receive one or more larges, and a 21.8% chance to recieve one or more rares.
I am almost led to believe they forgot to actually add a drop rate for fossils and only have one for numilite which ended up being about double what was intended.
24.35.62.241 03:38, June 8, 2018 (UTC)Genzel